Trends and structural factors affecting health equity in the United States at the local level, 1990-2019.

Health equity is fundamental to improving the health of populations, but in recent decades progress towards this goal has been mixed. To better support this mission, a deeper understanding of the local heterogeneity within population-level health equity is vital. This analysis presents trends in average health and health equity in the United States at the local level from 1990 to 2019 using three different health outcomes: mortality, self-reported health status, and healthy days. Furthermore, it examines the association between these measures of average health and health equity with several structural factors. Results indicate growing levels of geographic inequality disproportionately impacting less urbanized parts of the country, with rural counties experiencing the largest declines in health equity, followed by Medium and Small Metropolitan counties. Additionally, lower levels of health equity are associated with poorer local socioeconomic context, including several measures that are proxies for structural racism. Altogether, these findings strongly suggest social and economic factors play a pivotal role in explaining growing levels of geographic health inequality in the United States. Policymakers invested in improving health equity must adopt holistic and upstream approaches to improve and equalize economic opportunity as a means of fostering health equity.

Association of neighborhood gentrification and residential moves with hypertension and diabetes control in Los Angeles County, 2014-2019: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether gentrification exposure is associated with future hypertension and diabetes control. METHODS: Linking records from an integrated health care system to census-tract characteristics, we identified adults with hypertension and/or diabetes residing in stably low-SES census tracts in 2014 (n = 69,524). We tested associations of census tract gentrification occurring between 2015 and 2019 with participants' disease control in 2019. Secondary analyses considered the role of residential moves (possible displacement), race and ethnicity, and age. RESULTS: Gentrification exposure was associated with improved odds of hypertension control (aOR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17), especially among non-Hispanic Whites and adults >65 years. Gentrification was not associated with diabetes control overall, but control improved in the Hispanic subgroup. Disease control was similar regardless of residential moves in the overall sample, but disparate associations emerged in models stratified by race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Residents of newly gentrifying neighborhoods may experience modestly improved odds of hypertension and/or diabetes control, but associations may differ across population subgroups. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Gentrification may support-or at least not harm-cardiometabolic health for some residents. City leaders and health systems could partner with impacted communities to ensure that neighborhood development meets the goals and health needs of all residents and does not exacerbate health disparities.

Structural Racism and Well-Being Among Young People in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Structural racism has clear and pernicious effects on population health. However, there is a limited understanding of how structural racism impacts young people's well-being. The objective of this ecologic cross-sectional study was to assess the relationship between structural racism and well-being for 2,009 U.S. counties from 2010 to 2019. METHODS: Population-based data on demographics, health, and other variables related to young people's ability to thrive are used to construct a previously validated composite index that serves as a proxy of young people's well-being. The index is regressed on several forms of structural racism (segregation, economic, and educational) both independently and jointly while accounting for county-fixed effects, time trends, and state-specific trends as well as weighting for child population. Data were analyzed from November 2021 through March 2023. RESULTS: Higher levels of structural racism are associated with lower well-being. A 1-SD increase in Black-White child poverty disparity is associated with a -0.034 (95% CI= -0.019, -0.050) SD change in index score. When accounting for multiple structural racism measures, associations remain statistically significant. In joint models, only estimates for economic racism measures remain significant when additionally controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and adult health measures (ß= -0.015; 95% CI= -0.001, -0.029). These negative associations are heavily concentrated in counties where Black and Latinx children are overrepresented. CONCLUSIONS: Structural racism-particularly of the kind that produces racialized poverty outcomes-has a meaningful adverse association with child and adolescent well-being, which may produce lifelong effects. Studies of structural racism among adults should consider a lifecourse perspective.

The Relationship Between Homeownership and Health by Race/Ethnicity Since the Foreclosure Crisis: California Health Interview Survey 2011-2018.

BACKGROUND: US housing policy places a high priority on homeownership, providing large homeowner subsidies that are justified in part by homeownership's purported health benefits. However, studies conducted before, during, and immediately after the 2007-2010 foreclosure crisis found that while homeownership is associated with better health-related outcomes for White households, that association is weaker or non-existent for African-American and Latinx households. It is not known whether those associations persist in the period since the foreclosure crisis changed the US homeownership landscape. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between homeownership and health and whether that relationship differs by race/ethnicity in the period since the foreclosure crisis. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 8 waves (2011-2018) of the California Health Interview Survey (n = 143,854, response rate 42.3 to 47.5%). PARTICIPANTS: We included all US citizen respondents ages 18 and older. MAIN MEASURES: The primary predictor variable was housing tenure (homeownership or renting). The primary outcomes were self-rated health, psychological distress, number of health conditions, and delays in receiving necessary medical care and/or medications. KEY RESULTS: Compared to renting, homeownership is associated with lower rates of reporting fair or poor health (OR = 0.86, P < 0.001), fewer health conditions (incidence rate ratio = 0.95, P = 0.03), and fewer delays in receiving medical care (OR = 0.81, P < 0.001) and medication (OR = 0.78, P < 0.001) for the overall study population. Overall, race/ethnicity was not a significant moderator of these associations in the post-crisis period. CONCLUSIONS: Homeownership has the potential to provide significant health-related benefits to minoritized communities, but this potential may be threatened by practices of racial exclusion and predatory inclusion. Further study is needed to elucidate health-promoting mechanisms within homeownership as well as potential harms of specific homeownership-promoting policies to develop healthier, more equitable housing policy.

Mixed Signals in Child and Adolescent Mental Health and Well-Being Indicators in the United States: A Call for Improvements to Population Health Monitoring.

Policy Points Social indicators of young peoples' conditions and circumstances, such as high school graduation, food insecurity, and smoking, are improving even as subjective indicators of mental health and well-being have been worsening. This divergence suggests policies targeting the social indicators may not have improved overall mental health and well-being. There are several plausible reasons for this seeming contradiction. Available data suggest the culpability of one or several common exposures poorly captured by existing social indicators. Resolving this disconnect requires significant investments in population-level data systems to support a more holistic, child-centric, and up-to-date understanding of young people's lives.

Association of Cost-Driven Residential Moves With Health-Related Outcomes Among California Renters.

Importance: Unaffordable housing is associated with adverse health-related outcomes, but little is known about the associations between moving due to unaffordable housing and health-related outcomes. Objective: To characterize the association of recent cost-driven residential moves with health-related outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study involved a weighted multivariable regression analysis of California Health Interview Survey data from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017. A population-based sample of 52 646 adult renters and other nonhomeowners in California were included. Data were analyzed from March 2, 2021, to January 6, 2023. Exposure: Cost-driven moves in the past 3 years relative to no move and to non-cost-driven moves. Main Outcomes and Measures: Five outcomes were assessed: psychological distress (low, moderate, or severe, as categorized by the 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale), emergency department [ED] visits in the past year (any vs none), preventive care visits in the past year (any vs none), general health (poor or fair vs good, very good, or excellent), and walking for leisure in the past 7 days (in minutes). Results: Among 52 646 adult renters and other nonhomeowners, 50.3% were female, 85.2% were younger than 60 years, 45.3% were Hispanic, and 55.1% had income lower than 200% of the federal poverty level. Overall, 8.9% of renters reported making a recent cost-driven move, with higher prevalence among Hispanic (9.9%) and non-Hispanic Black (11.3%) renters compared with non-Hispanic White renters (7.2%). In multivariable models, compared with not moving, cost-driven moving was associated with a 4.2 (95% CI, 2.6-5.7) percentage point higher probability of experiencing moderate psychological distress; a 3.2 (95% CI, 1.9-4.5) percentage point higher probability of experiencing severe psychological distress; a 2.5 (95% CI, 0-4.9) percentage point higher probability of ED visits; a 5.1 (95% CI, 1.6-8.6) percentage point lower probability of having preventive care visits; a 3.7 (95% CI, 1.2-6.2) percentage point lower probability of having good, very good, or excellent general health; and 16.8 (95% CI, 6.9-26.6) fewer minutes of walking for leisure. General health, psychological distress, and walking for leisure were also worse with cost-driven moves relative to non-cost-driven moves, with a 3.2 (95% CI, 1.7-4.7) percentage point higher probability of experiencing moderate psychological distress; a 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2-3.9) percentage point higher probability of experiencing severe psychological distress; a 4.6 (95% CI, 2.1-7.2) percentage point lower probability of having good, very good, or excellent general health; and 13.0 (95% CI, 4.0-21.9) fewer minutes of walking for leisure. However, the incidence of preventive care and ED visits did not differ between those who made cost-driven vs non-cost-driven moves. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, cost-driven moves were associated with adverse health-related outcomes relative to not moving and to non-cost-driven moves. These findings suggest that policies to improve housing affordability, prevent displacement, and increase access to health care for groups vulnerable to cost-driven moves may have the potential to improve population health equity, especially during the current national housing affordability crisis.

Association of Promoting Housing Affordability and Stability With Improved Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review.

Importance: Housing insecurity-that is, difficulty with housing affordability and stability-is prevalent and results in increased risk for both homelessness and poor health. However, whether interventions that prevent housing insecurity upstream of homelessness improve health remains uncertain. Objective: To review evidence characterizing associations of primary prevention strategies for housing insecurity with adult physical health, mental health, health-related behaviors, health care use, and health care access. Evidence Review: Pairs of independent reviewers systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, EconLit, and the Social Interventions Research and Evaluation Network for quantitative studies published from 2005 to 2021 that evaluated interventions intended to directly improve housing affordability and/or stability either by supporting at-risk households (targeted primary prevention) or by enhancing community-level housing supply and affordability in partnership with the health sector (structural primary prevention). Risk of bias was appraised using validated tools, and the evidence was synthesized using modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Findings: A total of 26 articles describing 3 randomized trials and 20 observational studies (16 longitudinal designs and 4 cross-sectional quasi-waiting list control designs) were included. Existing interventions have focused primarily on mitigating housing insecurity for the most vulnerable individuals rather than preventing housing insecurity outright. Moderate-certainty evidence was found that eviction moratoriums were associated with reduced COVID-19 cases and deaths. Certainty of evidence was low or very low for health associations of other targeted primary prevention interventions, including emergency rent assistance, legal assistance with waiting list priority for public housing, long-term rent subsidies, and homeownership assistance. No studies evaluated health system-partnered structural primary prevention strategies. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review found mixed and mostly low-certainty evidence that interventions that promote housing affordability and stability were associated with improved adult health outcomes. Existing interventions may need to be paired with other efforts to address the structural determinants of health. As health care systems and insurers respond to increasing opportunities to invest in housing as a determinant of health, further research is needed to clarify where along the housing insecurity pathway interventions should focus for the most effective and equitable health impact.

Trends in Measures of Child and Adolescent Well-being in the US From 2000 to 2019.

Importance: Improving child and adolescent well-being is a critical public health goal, yet monitoring of this measure at the national level remains limited. Composite indices aggregate existing indicators from population data sources, but these indices currently have weaknesses that may inhibit widespread use. Objective: To apply a novel, more child-centric index method to document changes in overall child and adolescent well-being in the US from 2000 to 2019, assess which states and racial and ethnic subpopulations experienced the greatest inequities in well-being, and identify the specific components associated with changes in the index over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study applied the Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 to population-level data from 2000 to 2019 from several data sources. The area-based sampling frame for each of the component data sources allowed for nationally representative estimates for every year of the study period. The indices for every state and by race and ethnicity were also calculated. Due to the scope and breadth of the index components from across the life course, the Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 is intended to approximate the well-being of persons up to age 17 years. Data were analyzed from June 7, 2021, to March 17, 2022. Exposures: Time in years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 is a weighted mean of 11 indicators intended to proxy well-being. The index comprises 11 components: non-low birth weight in neonates, preschool attendance in children aged 3 to 4 years, reading proficiency in fourth-grade students, math proficiency in eighth-grade students, food security in children younger than 18 years, general health status, nonobesity in high school students, nonsmoking in adolescents aged 12 to 17 years, non-marijuana use in adolescents aged 12 to 17 years, high school graduation in young adults aged 18 to 21 years, and nonarrest rate in children aged 10 to 17 years. The index ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 indicating minimum and 1 indicating maximum possible well-being at the population level. Results: The Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 was applied to data from 12 320 national, state, and racial and ethnic population-level estimates. Over the study period, the Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 score increased from 0.780 points in 2000 to 0.843 points in 2019. Despite some convergence in geographic and racial and ethnic disparities, inequities were still present in 2019 in the South (-0.021 points) compared with the Northeast and among American Indian or Alaska Native (-0.079 points), Black (-0.053 points), and Latinx (-0.047 points) children and adolescents compared with White youths. Index components most associated with the overall increases in index scores of well-being were high school graduation rate (+0.028 units) and nonsmoking in adolescents (+0.022 units), amounting to 80.6% of the total increase. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that child and adolescent well-being scores increased from 2000 to 2019, but substantial work remains to address persistent inequities across states and racial and ethnic populations. The newly developed Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0 may be used in future work to evaluate which public policy types (economic, social, health care, housing, or education) are associated with higher levels of well-being.

The Child and Adolescent Thriving Index 1.0: Developing a Measure of the Outcome Indicators of Well-Being for Population Health Assessment.

The well-being of children and adolescents is emerging as an area of interest for population health measurement. Previous approaches assessing national and state trends in well-being have relied on composite indices. However, these methodologies suffer from several weaknesses. This paper develops an improved index for the United States that is measurable with existing population-data resources. It derives the appropriate weights for items in this index using a longitudinal panel of 2,942 children in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Candidate component measures are selected for the index based on their demonstrated association with several subjective scales assessed during young adulthood. The final index demonstrates that a broad range of measures indicate higher levels of population-level well-being. The predictive validity of the index for outcomes during young adulthood is also assessed: a one-standard-deviation increase in the index score is associated with a 7.9-percentage-point decrease [95% CI: 5.9 - 9.8] in ever reporting fair or poor health, a 6.3-percentage-point decrease [95% CI: 4.6 - 8.0] in ever reporting depression, and a 17.2% [95% CI: 13.7% - 20.5%] increase in peak earnings. These values for predictive validity are slightly higher than those of existing methodologies. We also find that incorporating contextual indicators from childhood and adolescence does not substantively improve predictive validity. Policy-makers and government agencies interested in population-level well-being of children and adolescents can continue to use existing indices as reasonable proxies, but should also commit to upgrading data systems to make them more child-centric in the future. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12187-022-09962-0.

A symphony within: Frequent participation in performing arts predicts higher positive mental health in young adults.

RATIONALE: Positive mental health is a critical component of overall mental health, but our understanding of the potential drivers of positive mental health is lacking. Participation in the arts may contribute to positive mental health through the mechanism of flow, a mental state of becoming completely engrossed in an enjoyable activity. Participation in performing arts specifically may be especially predictive of positive mental health due to its collective nature. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: This study uses the Population Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) Transition to Adulthood Sample (N = 5657 person-years) to investigate whether participation in performing arts predicts positive mental health in young adults in the US through adjusted least squares and individual-level fixed-effects linear regression models across three waves of data per individual. Additionally, the study investigates different levels of participation to establish a dose response and employs stratified analyses by race/ethnicity, income, and gender. RESULTS: Results show that, compared to no participation, participating in the performing arts every day is associated with an increase in positive mental health of a 0.315 effect size [p < 0.001]. White and higher income individuals are more likely to participate in the arts than people of color and lower income individuals. Yet, the association between performing arts and positive mental health is similar, if not greater, for people of color than it is for white individuals. CONCLUSION: This study shows strong associations between frequent performing arts participation and positive mental health and suggests that more resources should be allocated to performing arts access for young adults from diverse backgrounds.

Trends in health equity in mortality in the United States, 1969-2019.

RATIONALE: Health equity is a significant concern of public health, yet a comprehensive assessment of health equity in the United States over time is lacking. While one might presume that overall health will improve with rising living standards, no such presumption is warranted for health equity, which may decline even as average health improves. OBJECTIVES: To assess trends in national and state-level health equity in mortality for people up to age 25, ages 25-64 and aged 65 and older. METHODS: A health equity metric was calculated as the weighted mean life expectancy relative to a benchmark level, defined as the life expectancy of the most socially-privileged subpopulation (white, non-Latinx males with a college education or higher).We analyzed 114,558,346 death records from the National Center for Health Statistics, from January 1, 1969 to December 31, 2019 to estimate health equity annually at the national and state-level. Using ICD-9/ICD-10 classification codes, inequities in health were decomposed by major causes of death. RESULTS: From 1969 to 2019, health equity in the United States improved (+0.36 points annually [95% CI 0.31-0.41]), albeit at a slower rate over the last two decades (+0.08 points annually [95% CI 0.03-0.14] from 2000 to 2019, compared to +0.57 points annually from 1969 to 2000 [95% CI 0.50-0.65]). Health equity among those under 25 improved substantially (+0.82 points annually [95% CI 0.75-0.89]) but remained flat for adults 25-64 (-0.01 points annually [95% CI -0.03-0.003]) For those over 65, health equity displayed a downward trend (-0.08 points annually [95% CI -0.09 to -0.07]). Gains in equity from reduced unintentional injuries and homicides have been largely offset by rising mortality attributable to drug overdoses. CONCLUSIONS: The US is failing to advance health equity, especially for adults. Keeping policy-makers accountable to a summary measure of health equity may help coordinate efforts at improving population health.

Variation in State-Level Eviction Moratorium Protections and Mental Health Among US Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Although evictions have been associated with adverse mental health outcomes, it remains unclear which stages of the eviction process are associated with mental distress among renters. Variation in COVID-19 pandemic eviction protections across US states enables identification of intervention targets within the eviction process to improve renters' mental health. Objective: To measure the association between the strength of eviction protections (ie, stages blocked by eviction moratoriums) and mental distress among renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used individual-level, nationally representative data from the Understanding Coronavirus in America Survey to measure associations between state eviction moratorium protections and mental distress. The sample of 2317 respondents included renters with annual household incomes less than $75 000 who reported a state of residence and completed surveys between March 10 and September 3, 2020, prior to the federal eviction moratorium order by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Exposures: Time-varying strength of state moratorium protections as a categorical variable: none, weak (blocking court hearings, judgments, or enforcement without blocking notice or filing), or strong (blocking all stages of the eviction process beginning with notice and filing). Main Outcomes and Measures: Moderate to severe mental distress was measured using the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire. Linear regression models were adjusted for time-varying state COVID-19 incidence and mortality, public health restrictions, and unemployment rates. Models included individual and time fixed effects as well as clustered standard errors. Results: The sample consisted of 2317 individuals (20 853 total observations) composed largely (1788 [78%] weighted) of middle-aged adults (25-64 years of age) and women (1538 [60%]); 640 respondents (23%) self-reported as Hispanic or Latinx, 314 respondents (20%) as non-Hispanic Black, and 1071 respondents (48%) as non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity. Relative to no state-level eviction moratorium protections, strong protections were associated with a 12.6% relative reduction (risk ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99) in the probability of mental distress, whereas weak protections were not associated with a statistically significant reduction (risk ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.06). Conclusions and Relevance: This analysis of the Understanding Coronavirus in America Survey data found that strong eviction moratoriums were associated with protection against mental distress, suggesting that distress begins early in the eviction process with notice and filing. This finding is consistent with the idea that to reduce mental distress among renters, policy makers should focus on primary prevention of evictions.

Trends in Health Equity Among Children in the United States, 1997-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Health equity is crucial to population health. To achieve this aim, extensive monitoring efforts beyond traditional disparities research are required. This analysis assesses trends in health equity for children from 1997 to 2018. METHODS: Health equity in a given year is calculated using a previously developed measure as the mean weighted departure of individual health from the best achievable level of health. This criterion is defined as the median health of the most socially privileged identifiable group: white, non-Latinx boys in upper-income households. Using more than 20 years of data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this methodology to six measures of child health: parent-reported health status, school days missed due to illness or injury in the past year, a strength and difficulties questionnaire score, emotional difficulties, a toddler mental health indicator score, and toddler depression. We separately calculate racial/ethnic and income disparities. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess whether trends are statistically significant. RESULTS: Health equity among children increased gradually over the past 2 decades, with five of the six measures demonstrating upward trends. Improvements in health equity are stronger among younger children (age 0-3 and 4-7). Unlike previous work examining adults, both types of disparities narrowed over the study period. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Progress on health equity requires accountability to an objective metric. This analysis suggests some improvement over the past two decades, although these gains are under threat from potential decreases in government spending on programs affecting children and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Firearm laws and the network of firearm movement among US states.

BACKGROUND: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet, how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. METHODS: We analyzed the network of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010-2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state's firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms. RESULTS: Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (Standard Deviation [SD] 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] 0.58 per SD, p < 0.001) and being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.73 per SD, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Restrictive state-level firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.

How is the COVID-19 pandemic shaping transportation access to health care?

The Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted both transportation and health systems. While about 40% of Americans have delayed seeking medical care during the pandemic, it remains unclear to what extent transportation is contributing to missed care. To understand the relationship between transportation and unmet health care needs during the pandemic, this paper synthesizes existing knowledge on transportation patterns and barriers across five types of health care needs. While the literature is limited by the absence of detailed data for trips to health care, key themes emerged across populations and settings. We find that some patients, many of whom already experience transportation disadvantage, likely need extra support during the pandemic to overcome new travel barriers related to changes in public transit or the inability to rely on others for rides. Telemedicine is working as a partial substitute for some visits but cannot fulfill all health care needs, especially for vulnerable groups. Structural inequality during the pandemic has likely compounded health care access barriers for low-income individuals and people of color, who face not only disproportionate health risks, but also greater difficulty in transportation access and heightened economic hardship due to COVID-19. Partnerships between health and transportation systems hold promise for jointly addressing disparities in health- and transportation-related challenges but are largely limited to Medicaid-enrolled patients. Our findings suggest that transportation and health care providers should look for additional strategies to ensure that transportation access is not a reason for delayed medical care during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals' ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI: 365,200, 502,200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI: 8,900, 12,500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US.

Importance: The consequences of school closures for children's health are profound, but existing evidence on their effectiveness in limiting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission is unsettled. Objective: To determine the independent associations of voluntary behavioral change, school closures, and bans on large gatherings with the incidence and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, interrupted-time-series analysis of lagged independent variables used publicly available observational data from US states during a 60-day period from March 8 to May 18, 2020. The behavioral measures were collected from anonymized cell phone or internet data for individuals in the US and compared with a baseline of January 3 to February 6, 2020. Estimates were also controlled for several state-level characteristics. Exposures: Days since school closure, days since a ban on gatherings of 10 or more people, and days since residents voluntarily conducted a 15% or more decline in time spent at work via Google Mobility data. Main Outcomes and Measures: The natural log of 7-day mean COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Results: During the study period, the rate of restaurant dining declined from 1 year earlier by a mean (SD) of 98.3% (5.2%) during the study period. Time at work declined by a mean (SD) of 40.0% (7.9%); time at home increased by a mean (SD) of 15.4% (3.7%). In fully adjusted models, an advance of 1 day in implementing mandatory school closures was associated with a 3.5% reduction (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.965; 95% CI, 0.946-0.984) in incidence, whereas each day earlier that behavioral change occurred was associated with a 9.3% reduction (IRR, 0.907; 95% CI, 0.890-0.925) in incidence. For mortality, each day earlier that school closures occurred was associated with a subsequent 3.8% reduction (IRR, 0.962; 95% CI, 0.926-0.998), and each day of advance in behavioral change was associated with a 9.8% reduction (IRR, 0.902; 95% CI, 0.869-0.936). Simulations suggest that a 2-week delay in school closures alone would have been associated with an additional 23 000 (95% CI, 2000-62 000) deaths, whereas a 2-week delay in voluntary behavioral change with school closures remaining the same would have been associated with an additional 140 000 (95% CI, 65 000-294 000) deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: In light of the harm to children of closing schools, these findings suggest that policy makers should consider better leveraging the public's willingness to protect itself through voluntary behavioral change.

Passing a Healthy Homes Initiative: Using Modeling to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Decision Making in Kansas City, Missouri.

CONTEXT AND SETTING: Kansas City, Missouri, experiences substantial racial/ethnic health disparities, particularly associated with that city's high level of residential segregation. Among the risk factors for poor health are substandard housing, particularly common in African American neighborhoods, which lead to asthma and therefore to school absences. A 2018 ballot initiative in Kansas City, Missouri, would allow health inspectors to investigate complaints of poor or hazardous conditions in rental housing. OBJECTIVES: Because the Kansas City, Missouri Health Department cannot legally advocate directly for voter support of public health policies, department staff used outside consultants to demonstrate the potential positive impact of environmental initiatives. DESIGN: The Win-Win model provides a standardized, unbiased economic analysis of interventions to help public health officials make informed policy and program decisions and engage in cross-sectoral collaboration. RESULTS: The Win-Win model found that if an asthma home remediation program were provided for almost 7000 low-income children in Kansas City, it would result in 55 000 fewer days of missed school annually among other promising outcomes. The model also showed a $1.67 return-on-investment to local and state government for each dollar spent and a 3-year breakeven point. The results from the Win-Win model were integrated into Kansas City's Community Health Improvement Plan and made available on the Win-Win Project Web site. The proposed law to promote rental inspections passed with 57% of the vote. CONCLUSIONS: The model results allowed for an informed, unbiased point of evidence that the health department could present to community groups and elected officials leading up to the vote on the health inspection initiative.

Unmet Medical Needs Among Adults Who Move due to Unaffordable Housing: California Health Interview Survey, 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND: Stable, affordable housing is an established determinant of health. As affordable housing shortages across the USA threaten to displace people from their homes, it is important to understand the implications of cost-related residential moves for healthcare access. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between cost-related moves and unmet medical needs. DESIGN: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 7 waves (2011-2017) of the California Health Interview Survey. PARTICIPANTS: We included all respondents ages 18 and older. MAIN MEASURES: The primary predictor variable was residential move history in the past 5 years (cost-related move, non-cost-related move, or no move). The primary outcome was unmet medical needs in the past year (necessary medications and/or medical care that were delayed or not received). KEY RESULTS: Our sample included 146,417 adults (42-47% response rate), representing a weighted population of 28,518,590. Overall, 20.3% of the sample reported unmet medical needs in the past year, and 4.9% reported a cost-related move in the past 5 years. In multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted risk of unmet medical needs increased for adults with both cost-related moves (aOR 1.38; 95% CI 1.19-1.59) and non-cost-related moves (aOR 1.17; 95% CI 1.09-1.26) compared to those with no moves. Among people who had moved, those with cost-related moves were more likely to report unmet medical needs compared to people with non-cost-related moves (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: People who have moved due to unaffordable housing represent a population at increased risk for unmet medical needs. Policy makers seeking to improve population health should consider strategies to limit cost-related moves and to mitigate their adverse effects on healthcare access.